Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.
| Published in | Science Journal of Public Health (Volume 3, Issue 5) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13 |
| Page(s) | 612-617 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Spermophilus dauricus Focus, Exponential Smoothing Method, Best Regression Subsets Method, Risk Classification
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APA Style
Xiaolei Zhou, Boyu Zhang, Xianbin Cong, Xiaoheng Yao, Cheng Ju, et al. (2015). A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China. Science Journal of Public Health, 3(5), 612-617. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
ACS Style
Xiaolei Zhou; Boyu Zhang; Xianbin Cong; Xiaoheng Yao; Cheng Ju, et al. A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China. Sci. J. Public Health 2015, 3(5), 612-617. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
AMA Style
Xiaolei Zhou, Boyu Zhang, Xianbin Cong, Xiaoheng Yao, Cheng Ju, et al. A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China. Sci J Public Health. 2015;3(5):612-617. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13
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Download@article{10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13,
author = {Xiaolei Zhou and Boyu Zhang and Xianbin Cong and Xiaoheng Yao and Cheng Ju and Zhonglai Li and Cheng Xu and Tianyi Duan and Guijun Zhang and Lei Chen and Zhencai Liu},
title = {A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China},
journal = {Science Journal of Public Health},
volume = {3},
number = {5},
pages = {612-617},
doi = {10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjph.20150305.13},
abstract = {Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed.},
year = {2015}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - A Prediction Model for the Animal Plague in Spermophilus dauricus Focus in China AU - Xiaolei Zhou AU - Boyu Zhang AU - Xianbin Cong AU - Xiaoheng Yao AU - Cheng Ju AU - Zhonglai Li AU - Cheng Xu AU - Tianyi Duan AU - Guijun Zhang AU - Lei Chen AU - Zhencai Liu Y1 - 2015/06/29 PY - 2015 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13 DO - 10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13 T2 - Science Journal of Public Health JF - Science Journal of Public Health JO - Science Journal of Public Health SP - 612 EP - 617 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2328-7950 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20150305.13 AB - Plague is a fatal infectious disease that causes serious harm to humans. Its occurrence threatens not only public life, but also economic development. Although the incidence of plague in China shows a downward trend, the risk of animal and human plague still persists. By analyzing the data of the Spermophilus dauricus focus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1981 to 2012, we established a statistical model to predict the epidemic of the animal plague, which combines the best subset regression method and the exponential smoothing method. According to the data from 1981 to 2011, the model predicted that there is no animal plague epidemic risk in 2012. This result is consistent with the report from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the plague bacillus Yersinia pestis was not detected in the S. dauricus focus in 2012. In addition, our model can be extended to predict the epidemic of plague in other foci. Potential and limitations of the model are discussed. VL - 3 IS - 5 ER -
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